Статьи

GWEC 2012: в ближайшие годы развивающиеся рынки станут движущей силой роста ветроэнергетики

19 Апр 2012

В 2012 году в мировой индустрии ветроэнергетики будет установлено более 46 ГВт новых мощностей. Об этом говорится в пятилетнем прогнозе, который был опубликован на этой неделе Всемирным советом по энергии ветра (Global Wind Energy Council; GWEC) на конференции EWEA 2012 в Копенгагене. Эксперты также отметили, что к концу 2016 года общая установленная мощность приблизится к отметке в 500 ГВт, а объем рынка в этом году составит около 60 ГВт.

Аналитики GWEC прогнозируют, что среднегодовые темпы роста рынка в течение следующих пяти лет будут составлять около 8%. В текущем году ситуация обещает быть очень благоприятной, но все изменится после падения объема сделок в 2013 году. В период с 2012 по 2016 гг., как ожидается, объем вновь установленных мощностей достигнет 255 ГВт, а совокупный рост рынка будет в среднем немногим ниже 16%.

"В течение следующих пяти лет ежегодный рост рынка будет зависеть в первую очередь от ситуации в Индии и Бразилии. Значительный вклад в развитие мировой индустрии ветроэнергетики внесут новые рынки Латинской Америки, Африки и Азии", говорит Стив Сойер, генеральный секретарь GWEC. "Рынки на всех континентах продолжают диверсифицироваться, но в то же время они пострадали от последствий медленного экономического роста и бюджетных кризисов в странах ОЭСР, а также продолжающегося кредитного кризиса."

Вот уже второй год подряд большинство новых объектов создаются за пределами ОЭСР, и эта тенденция, несомненно, будет лишь нарастать. Азия останется крупнейшим в мире рынком. В этом регионе будет создано максимальное количество генерирующих мощностей. По предварительным оценкам, мощность ВЭС, установленных в Азии в период до 2016 года, составит 118 ГВт. Это позволит региону перегнать Европу и стать мировым лидером по совокупной установленной мощности уже в 2013 году. К слову, эксперты прогнозируют, что к концу следующего года в Азии будут установлены генерирующие мощности на 200 ГВт.

После почти десяти лет активного роста китайский рынок, наконец, стабилизировался. Он будет оставаться примерно на текущем уровне в течение следующих нескольких лет. Объем рынка в Индии, как ожидается, достигнет 5 ГВт к 2015 году. И это при том, что в минувшем году страна вышла на уровень в 3 ГВт. Будущее энергетической системы Японии благодаря почти всеобщему отказу от ядерной энергетики после трагедии 11 марта 2011 будет во многом зависеть от новых ВЭС. Подобная ситуация дает надежду на новое начало для ветроэнергетики в стране восходящего солнца.

Европейский рынок остается стабильным. Он будет развиваться в четких рамках политики ЕС, руководство которого давно разработало программу по переходу на альтернативную энергетику к 2020 году. Вряд ли мы будем наблюдать тут много крупных сюрпризов. Если рассматривать отдельные страны, нужно отметить, что для Германии прошлый год оказался очень напряженным. Решение правительства о полном отказе от ядерной энергетики до 2020 года дает рассматриваемой нами отрасли новый импульс. В Испании период с 2011 по 2012 гг. будет не очень удачным, вероятно, подобная ситуация сохранится. В Румынии, Польше, Турции и Швеции темпы роста также замедлились.

Эксперты GWEC ожидают, что североамериканский рынок в 2012 году будет на подъеме. В Канаде и Мексике будут установлены энергоблоки мощностью более 1000 МВт. В дополнение к этому в США уже строятся генерирующие мощности на 8 ГВт. Сейчас представляется маловероятным, что США сохранят программу федерального налогового кредитования ветроэнергетики, что может оказать существенное влияние на рынок в 2013 году. Аналитики ожидают в следующем году значительное падение объемов строительства ВЭС в стране, в то время как ситуация в Канаде и Мексике останется стабильной. В целом в Северной Америке в период с 2012 по 2016 годы, как ожидается, будут установлены генерирующие мощности более 50 ГВт, в результате чего на конец рассматриваемого периода общая установленная мощность превысит отметку в 100 ГВт.

На рынке Латинской Америки доминирует Бразилия. Страна медленно становится основным международным рынком с сильной производственной базой. Местные заводы вскоре смогут удовлетворять растущий спрос на региональных рынках стран южного полушария. На долю Бразилии придется подавляющее большинство новых ВЭС, введенных в эксплуатацию в регионе в период до 2016 года.

Подготовлено порталом Energysafe по материалам Всемирного совета по энергии ветра

Начало активности (дата): 19.04.2012 12:09:32

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